Using the Box-Jenkins Methodology to Build A Standard Model for Forecasting Agricultural Imports in Iraq

Abstract

    The study aimed to predict Iraqi agricultural and food imports for the period (2021-2027) using the Box-Jenkins methodology. The autocorrelation and partial functions were used for the purpose of ensuring the stability of time series and testing the residual correlation, histogram and probabilistic distribution of residuals of the estimated model for the purpose of ensuring the suitability of the chosen model The study found an increase in both Iraqi agricultural and food imports during the studied period, and in light of the results reached, the study recommends maintaining the growth of this sector at 1.5%, 1.2% for agricultural and food imports, respectively..